EURUSD Market Forecast For March- Range Bound

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EUR/USD Market Forecast For March- Range Bound

It’s no secret that the EUR/USD is range bound. Anyone can look at a chart and see that it has been trading sideways between 1.2200 and 1.2550 since the middle of January. What most people don’t know is what’s causing this trend in the face of mounting hawkish outlook for the FOMC. I mean, with the US economy expanding, tax reform boosting growth, inflation slowly increasing and the Fed set to raise rates the dollar should be shooting higher like a rocket, but it isn’t.

This is because of the ECB. Not because they are tightening, or even because they’ve indicated a need to tighten, but because the market thinks they will and sooner rather than later. Why, because of the US. It is a Catch-22 the market can’t get away from. The US is a leading economy, not in the sense of yay USA we’re number 1, but in the sense that when the US grows it leads the world in growth and when the US slows it leads the world into recession.

In this environment hawkish news for the US, bullish news for the market, signs of expansion within the economy, end up being a net positive for the rest of the world. Sure, it may lead the FOMC to raise rates but it will also lead the ECB and BOJ to raise rates too and that my friends is why the dollar is range bound. The dollar strengthens but then the euro strengthens right behind it, undermining any gains that may have been made. I would expect this to continue until there is a clearer signal from one of the central banks.

How Do You Trade A Range Bound EUR/USD?

So, how do trade this range bound EUR/USD? Very carefully but with patience profitably as well. The key s targeting support and resistance levels at the ranges boundaries and within the range itself. The boundaries can be traded in the expectation of reversal, targets within the range may be used for reversal or continuation to the next target.

The daily charts shows the range very clearly. The pair has just rejected the bottom of the range on news President Donald Trump was going to impose stiff tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. It is now moving up within the range with an expected target near 1.2550 over the next few weeks. The indicators are still a bit weak but consistent with a bounce at support and drift higher within the trading range. The risk is a possible resistance level at 1.2365 that may cap upward movement.

The hourly chart confirms upward movement from the 1.2180 support level but the move is losing steam. The MACD momentum indicators is showing a noticeable divergence from prices that may lead to an intraday correction. Until that happens, price action does look bullish and is supported by a trend following crossover in the stochastic. A move higher in prices would confirm the uptrend with a target near 1.2360 over the next few trading days. A move above 1.2360 would be bullish within the range with target near the top of the range.

Next week will be important for the pair. There is quite a bit of data from both regions with two major market moving events on the calendar. The first is the ECB meeting on Wednesday, the second is US non-farm payroll data on Friday. These will both move the EUR/USD, be ready for volatility, use your support and resistance targets for entries and exits, bot don’t expect the range to break until later in the month when the FOMC meets.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – EUR/USD Range Bound amid Holiday Thin Market

EUR/USD has started the week with slight gains as dollar was weighed down owing to mix of negative factors including heightened concerns over a partial U.S. government shutdown and tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The market is relatively silent in Asian market hours today as majority of market is still closed on holiday celebrations. While Asian markets are open for trading today, mix of geo-political issues and concerns of economic slowdown kept lid on any serious bull move. Investors are expected to exercise cautious tone amid holiday thin market today as European markets are closed and USA is in dire situation owing to internal crisis.

Macro Data Updates To Provide Slight Volatility Towards End of Week

There is no high impact macro data releases scheduled for the day leaving no triggers to provide even short term opportunities which has also limited liquidity in market considerably. As of writing this article EURUSD pair is trading flat at 1.1402 up by 0.07% on the day. The pair is expected to continue trading with bullish bias in favor of common currency across today’s trading hours owing to broad based weaker US Greenback. On release front, investors focus now lies on US CB Consumer Confidence data and new home sales data scheduled to release during Thursday’s US market hours and German CPI data scheduled to release on Friday for short term opportunities.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 6, 2020

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0799, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.0831.

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EUR/USD Stopped Falling

After a continuous decline, the major currency pair is reaching stability early in the new April week; it is trading at 1.0810.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Consolidates Near 1.0800 Support

After declining for five straight sessions, EUR/USD is seen trading sideways in a narrow range above support at 1.0800 to start the new week.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Has Rough Week

The Euro has had a rough week, slicing back down below the 1.08 level on Friday and wiping out most of the gains from the previous candle.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Falls Hard Yet Again

The Euro fell quite a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching below the 1.08 level. Having said that, the market did stabilize a bit around the jobs figure, and therefore we could get a slight bounce.

End Of Week Technical Take on Indexes, Metals, Currencies, Oil: April 3, 2020

See what to expect today and next week as we have some huge moves about to start up again.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 3, 2020

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0800, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0816 and the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.0831.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro on Pace to Post Fifth Straight Day of Losses

EUR/USD dipped below the 1.0800 handle in early European trading on Friday and is down nearly 3% in the week thus far as the dollar has regained upward momentum.

Equities Take a Stroll Through Wonderland, Awaiting “Herd Immunity.”

I’m not so much a bear as a realist and not buying into the notion that this is a temporary dip followed by a huge rebound. Voluminous job losses and bankruptcies could lead to permanent wealth deviation.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Falls In Risk Appetite Move

The Euro spent most of the day falling on Thursday, as traders rushed towards the safety of the greenback. This was accelerated once we got horrible initial jobless claims figures coming out of the United States.

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